Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 43.151037 50.831577 59.216276 69.015025 80.116141 92.266029 106.532129
2025-01-05 31.136852 41.217851 53.267483 68.581651 87.363562 109.477127 137.297065
2025-01-12 26.207513 37.839849 52.695695 72.732322 98.683967 130.769747 172.996495
2025-01-19 19.976983 31.355166 46.825960 68.868242 98.857381 137.571016 190.552371
2025-01-26 17.323843 29.134635 46.035062 71.190965 106.758976 154.224155 221.135237
2025-02-02 15.871966 28.341175 46.982045 75.769527 117.791046 175.410553 258.603172
2025-02-09 14.075600 26.684771 46.367848 77.872838 125.288229 191.995500 290.493934
2025-02-16 12.410023 24.947187 45.353752 79.149544 131.493983 206.913860 320.599097
2025-02-23 10.751392 22.938329 43.625301 79.059806 135.501442 218.719176 346.659669
2025-03-02 9.103898 20.666218 41.159782 77.483184 136.985647 226.739800 367.429996
2025-03-09 7.907211 19.032918 39.564345 77.116426 140.217976 237.372648 392.318389
2025-03-16 6.385339 16.477076 36.001950 73.031647 137.086976 238.017234 402.127287
2025-03-23 5.744467 15.754359 35.928254 75.387547 145.329958 257.676927 443.289306
2025-03-30 4.841691 14.290239 34.280326 74.818092 148.726318 270.087944 474.264141
2025-04-06 4.553529 14.189492 35.311239 79.271015 161.040746 297.412413 529.772678
2025-04-13 3.571156 12.145390 32.027054 75.120523 157.798686 299.000285 544.275565
2025-04-20 3.245328 11.722136 32.141458 77.615564 166.659195 321.109348 592.773932
2025-04-27 3.116128 11.813250 33.407108 82.530923 180.261061 351.824554 656.508259
2025-05-04 2.828265 11.377520 33.398089 84.787722 188.976138 374.490520 707.702802
2025-05-11 2.523455 10.811546 32.996819 86.157233 196.045661 394.558278 755.234600
2025-05-18 2.184064 10.038838 31.972907 86.060981 200.221875 409.659691 794.852966
2025-05-25 1.823241 9.077277 30.315238 84.369690 201.083841 418.813076 824.545016
2025-06-01 1.566137 8.397924 29.283167 83.976197 204.487731 432.648702 862.757056